Monthly Archives: February 2016

Are you pessimistic enough when planning?

Prediction about the future being so difficult, there is a good argument that nobody ever has an exact picture about risk.

Statistician George Box once said: “All models are wrong but some are useful.”

All models are wrong because they merely approximate the truth – this is why events such as flooding, accidents at nuclear reactors, and financial crises seem to happen much more often than they should.

The idea of a good risk model is not to be correct, but to be useful.  Read more