Prediction about the future being so difficult, there is a good argument that nobody ever has an exact picture about risk.
Statistician George Box once said: “All models are wrong but some are useful.”
All models are wrong because they merely approximate the truth – this is why events such as flooding, accidents at nuclear reactors, and financial crises seem to happen much more often than they should.
The idea of a good risk model is not to be correct, but to be useful. Read more